Good evening all, hope all is well. First and foremost I want to give a "shout out" and my "warmest congratulations" to Aplington-Parkersburg High School Football Fighting Falcons. In their first game since the Tragic Death of Head football Coach Ed Thomas, The falcons dismantled rival Dike-New Hartford 30-14. It was a great statement game for a team and town that is continuing to cope with the death of a legendary coach and a devastating tornado that both ripped the little town apart. This team had to mature very quickly and will be carrying the weight of a town on their respective shoulders this year. As the town rallies around this team this year, Da' Goat wishes them the very best this year and for many to come. They have and will do this small town and this great nation very proud this year regardless of their record.
Secondly, Da GOAT had the distinguished opportunity to check out Michael Vick's return to the NFL last night from the Lower Level 50 yard line at Lincoln Financial Field. Vick did good for his first game back going 4-4 on just 6 plays, but it was more then just the stats last night. It was the acceptance of an entire city of a man who just 18 short months ago sat in a 6x10 with 3 squares because he had brain malfunction or a serious lack of judgement, take your pick. To hear the entire stadium chant "Put Vick in" and giving him a standing ovation every time he went in was just fantastic. Now, I don't condone Vick's actions by any means, but I do believe in second chances. Philly has given him a second shot at getting his life back and I hope that he takes full advantage of it. God speed Mr. Vick, and I hope you get to start in Philly this year and blow it up, because I picked you up on my fantasy team, so don't disappoint.
Now, on to what the masses have been waiting on...
Like:
Kentucky -14.5
UTEP -7.5
Bowling Green +7
South Carolina +4.5(H)
Love:
Iowa St. -13.5
Wake Forest -1(H)
Central Michigan +14.5(H)
One Night Stand:
*TEASE*
Nevada +21
Illinois PK
Oregon +12
Bama PK
Want to marry:
USC ML
OSU ML
PENN ST. ML
CLEMSON ML
NEBRASKA ML
OKLAHOMA ML
TEXAS ML
(Little or no value, but a win is a win)
Line to watch:
Minnesota -6.5 (This one is interesting and may be worth firing on)
Now, normally Da GOAT is firing away the first week of the season and my record opening weekend speaks for itself, but this year is a little different. I don't see "That Game" or a true "Vegas Whiff" that is worth firing on right now. Listed above are my "LEANS" and none of those games are "Locked In". I don't think a free for all picking 100 games is worth it, and I am going to try to focus on just a few a week that look to have great value. I will be breaking down a couple of these games later on starting with the SC/NCSU game tonight, and the rest in the following days.
NCSU/USC
LINE: NCSU -4
LEAN: SOUTH CAROLINA +4.5 (BTH)
Location: Carter Finley Stadium
Seating: 65,000
"Talent" Meter (1-10): 6.5
Game Date: 9/3/09
Game Time: 7:30
Network: ESPN
This is an interesting match-up to open up the season for both of these schools again this year. We all know what happened last year, when Chris Smelley, the QB for the Cocks threw 137 interceptions and the Cocks still blanked NCSU 34-0. Alot of people are talking about the NCSU "resurgence" this year with "All World" QB Russell Wilson leading the charge. Tony Baker is back after replacing both knee's, and a good WR corp. to chuck the tater around too. The defense is experienced and should progress as the season does this year, HOWEVER.....
They are still squaring off against an SEC team. The beating last year was not a "fluke" as most think it was, and I kinda see this game like the "BAMA/CLEMSON" game last year, hell, even the line is the same! And there are some GLARING stats that just stick out like a sore thumb to me...
Steve Spurrier since taking the reins at UF, is 21-0 in openers?!?! The guy has not lost an opener since Duke, and I can't verify that he even lost then! As it stands the guy DOES NOT LOSE his opener. Some might say, well they open with patsies, and some of them were, but a lot of them were conference games both home and away to open. The "Ole Ball Coach" is "DA GOAT" to start the season, but since he's been at USC, the wheels tend to come off soon after they win the opener. Further, as much as everyone thinks that USC was that bad last year, a little closer look at their schedule might surprise you.
All five of their losses were to Ranked Bowl teams including Vandy, Georgia, LSU, and Florida. Now outside of UF, they lost each game by 7 or less. If Garcia has matured even the slightest bit over the spring and the COCKS don't get in trouble early, then they can easily cover this number, if not win the game outright.
Ok, enough for this evening....if you agree of disagree, leave a comment and we'll swap ignorance over it!
Enjoy,
Da GOAT
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5 comments:
Nice read. Here's my question, I have $100 in my pocket, in your honest opinion, opening weekend, where do I put it? Do I load up on one special game, or diversify and try to gain a modest return on investment to start the season off right?
Nice to see Da Goat back in action! Interesting post. Great analysis on the NCSU/USC game. Sounds like a solid play to me. How often have SEC teams played out of conference games and caught points the last decade? That would be an interesting stat! I bet it's not often. Also, taking a Thursday night "Road Dawg" would be a change in trends over the last two years, but I still like it.
I like Central Michigan catching almost two tds. Just a note here. They are on the road at Arizona. I think you've got them at home.
Let me get your thoughts on the games I'm watching.
Oregon/Boise St over 63.5. I agree Vegas looks like they brought their "A" game early this year which is a shame. If there is one "whiff" out there on opening week. it's this o/u. You know Vegas tends to blow one of these early every year also. This is it. This game is in the mid 70's at least. Don't worry about being on the right side of the spread. BTH on the over and sit back and enjoy the fireworks (think Illinois/Mizzou last year).
Notre Dame -13.5
You know I'm the only Golden Dome Homer left on the net. Buy the hook and pound this one. We've got the best offensive line we've had in over two decades. Couple that with Touchdown Jesus and Nevada is going to feel awfully beat up come the fourth quarter when the Irish will add to the lead with a couple of late scores.
Illinois -6.5
Buy the hook again and fire away. Missouri is too young on offense and not deep enough on defense to hang in there this year. The Zucker has recruited himself a ton of "athletes", and this is their year.
Ok...hold onto your nut sack...
Memphis +17 - I know. I know. Ole Miss is good. REALLY good. But you need a little local knowledge about this game to see the whole picture. I grew up down the street from Graceland. So here is what you need to know. Memphis has only one rival - Ole Miss. I know you say "how can it be a rivalry if you never win?" Well, tell that to the kids. Memphis was beat to hell last year to start the season, and still went bowling. They get the Rebels at home with an experienced quaterback and two receivers who will finish the season as university career leaders in tds and receiving yards respectively. BTW, one of these kids is a matchup nightmare at 6'8" with some speed. They have enough athletes on defense to keep Houston Nutt honest. Factor in that THIS is the biggest game of the season to them while Ole Miss has visions of Atlanta and Pasadena. That keeps the Tigers in this one enough to cover.
Tease them all for a great openig weekend play
Oregon/Boise over 56.5
ND -7
Ill pk
Mem +24
J-
That's a great question. Like I posted, Opening weekend, right now, there is not a game that really stands out to me right now. The smart idea and the best cappers will tell you, is never spread your money across the board. You pick one or two games and break down/cap those games, because if not, you are laying blindly on a bunch of games that you know nothing about. Remember, Vegas is using the same information that you have to cap the first week of the season because no of these teams have played yet. IHMO, I think you maybe pick a STRONG two team teaser or a NICE ML parlay like I have list and put $10, $20, $25 on it and save the other $75 until you find the "Vegas Whiff" and blow your load on it. Granted, you might not get good odds, and win a whole lot, but you will have your action spread across a couple of games like you want and get the spread they way you want it. And if you do lose, you not busted out the first weekend.
Oracle-
Yeah, I got my "thursday night home dawg" with Bowling Green, but they are not in the ESPN spotlight so that kind of worries me, and remember CAROLINA+5 on Thursday night going to PICSATAWAY last year, they rolled 44-14 i think so the "ROAD DAWG" was good last year as well. Love the Boise/Oregon over, your right and I got that number at 60.5 right now. I didn't specify where C. Michigan was playing, and correct, they are on the road, but still like them in this spot. The Golden Domers will have to prove they are worthy before I lay any chaulk with them this year, plain and simple. Like the Zooker in this spot as well, that might be the ballgame this coming weekend. That teaser looks like a fresh crispy $100 bill my brother!!! and glad to see you can post now!
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